India’s nuclear arsenal is estimated to have reached around 190 nuclear warheads, according to a new assessment published by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The assessment says India continues to modernise its nuclear forces while developing and deploying new systems designed to strengthen its strategic deterrence.
The estimate represents an increase from previous assessments and includes more than 160 warheads associated with operational nuclear-capable delivery systems, along with additional warheads produced for newer missile systems that are currently being introduced. FAS estimates that India operates nine different nuclear-capable systems, covering aircraft, land-based ballistic missiles and sea-based ballistic missiles.
India does not publicly disclose the size of its nuclear weapons stockpile. FAS therefore developed its estimate using publicly available information, including government statements, budgetary information, military disclosures, media reports, industry publications and commercial satellite imagery. The organisation also stresses that the figures carry uncertainty because important details about India’s nuclear weapons programme remain classified.
The assessment estimates that India may have produced enough military-grade plutonium for between 140 and 225 nuclear warheads, although this does not mean that the entire quantity has been converted into assembled weapons. FAS notes that some plutonium could remain in reserve and that the amount required for individual warheads depends on their design. The report estimates India’s weapon-grade plutonium stockpile at around 730 kilograms, plus or minus approximately 170 kilograms, at the beginning of 2026.
India is simultaneously expanding its nuclear delivery capabilities. The country’s strategic forces include nuclear-capable aircraft, road- and rail-mobile ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. FAS says newer systems are being developed to complement or eventually replace existing platforms, indicating that India’s nuclear deterrent is continuing to evolve across land, air and sea.
Among the systems highlighted in the assessment is the Agni-V, India’s longer-range ballistic missile that is being deployed by the Strategic Forces Command. The missile is road-mobile and capable of carrying multiple warheads. FAS notes that the Agni-V has been flight-tested in three consecutive years, with its most recent test conducted on May 8, 2026. Its longer range could allow India to position the system farther from the Chinese border while maintaining strategic reach.
India is also strengthening the sea-based component of its nuclear deterrent. The FAS assessment notes the reported commissioning of India’s third indigenously developed nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, INS Aridhaman, in April 2026. The report says the submarine is larger than the first two Arihant-class boats and is believed to have eight missile tubes. India is also developing additional ballistic missile submarines as part of the longer-term expansion of its sea-based nuclear capability.
The growth of India’s nuclear forces is taking place alongside continued development of technologies associated with longer-range and multiple-warhead missile capabilities. FAS identifies progress in areas including MIRV-capable missile systems, mobile launchers and the expansion of India’s SSBN fleet as important developments in the country’s evolving nuclear triad.
At the same time, the assessment highlights uncertainty surrounding some aspects of India’s warhead technology. While India’s 1998 nuclear tests provided evidence of a validated fission design, FAS says there remains uncertainty over the country’s progress with boosted-fission and thermonuclear weapon designs. The organisation also cautions that available fissile material estimates cannot by themselves establish the actual number of assembled nuclear weapons.
India continues to officially maintain a policy of credible minimum deterrence and no first use of nuclear weapons. The latest assessment therefore reflects the expansion and modernisation of India’s strategic capabilities rather than an announced change in its nuclear doctrine.
With additional nuclear-capable missile and submarine systems under development, FAS expects India’s nuclear warhead inventory could increase further. The future size of the arsenal will depend on the availability of fissile material, the number of operational delivery systems and India’s strategic requirements.
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